America's Cup Match:
Auckland, NZ, March 2021

America's Cup Match Day 1

Challenger: Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli (ITA)
Defender: Emirates Team New Zealand (NZL)

First to Seven Wins (Best of 13) Series.

Wednesday, March 10, Two Races:

Race 1:
Warning signal 4:12 pm, Start 4:15pm
NZL (port entry) beats ITA (starboard entry)
NZL leads series 1-0

Race 2:
25 minutes following end of Race 1
ITA (port) beats NZL (starboard)
Series is tied at 1-1

Daily Report:

Course:
The Race Director has now selected Course Area E, though Area A had been originally intended as of Tuesday.

Conditions:
NNW 14-16 kts (Repcast). N to NW 10-13 kts (Official, via PredictWind.)

Outlook:
Rarely has an America's Cup come after so little competition among either challenger or defender candidates. New Zealand revealed little in their December public outings other than that they were already sailing well, and looking faster than the challengers. Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli showed in January and February that they knew how to get faster, and quickly. Whether Italy's improvements are enough, it's impossible to say before the racing begins, which is what makes the first race of an America's Cup match so exciting. There are three years of anticipation behind it, and a lot hinging on the answer. The defender and challenger sport different thinking in terms of their foil designs. The challenger is more race tested, but defender ETNZ has historically excelled at this sort of sophisticated technical game, and probably has some aces up their sleeve.

Perceptions vary as to what weather conditions favor each side, and most of the comparison doesn't seem founded on much substance. Probably very little of the performance profiles seen in January or back to December apply in March. These boats, launched in October, have had to evolve too much in too short a time, and the crews have learned volumes over that same period. Speed is good, but the combination of speed and pointing ability to windward (VMG) is even better. ETNZ looked scary good at that in December. The situational awareness required to race these things is dialed up a couple levels, too. Luna Rossa has that experience.

Tactics? Starting Aggression? And a Race Strategy? INEOS risked nearly all to win starts, probably knowing they were slower. And they lost more in the starts than they won. More likely Peter Burling will look for the right opening in boxer Jimmy Spithill's approach, and if the Kiwis see it, they'll go at him hard. Spithill needs to pressure the New Zealanders at least enough to get even starts out of the process. As good as Spithill is, Burling handled him confidently in 2017 in Bermuda when positions were reversed, and they both know exactly who they are facing again.

In light wind, Ineos showed the value of getting a controlling position on the first leg. It's hard to pass downwind with these boats and the narrow short courses, so the lighter the wind, the more premium on controlling the favored side of the course and using match racing tactics to stay ahead of your competitor. When the wind is up, as it may be later in the match, speed and smooth execution will be the story, too.

Here we go!

Race 1:
Emirates Team New Zealand just a little ahead up the first windward leg. Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli is hanging in. Downwind, NZL pulls steadily further out in front. Upwind ITA makes gains every time, but not enough to catch up. The pattern continues, and NZL banks Race 1.

Emirates Team New Zealand wins Race 1 by 0:31 and takes a 1-0 lead in the Match!

Race 2:
Luna Rossa takes a small lead at the start and defends a lead to a 0:13 delta at the top mark. NZL's gains downwind are big enough to offset the lead. Upwind ITA plays a good close cover game until the final upwind, and NZL gets almost to striking distance on Leg 5, with the threat of reeling ITA in downwind to the finish. But there's not enough race course and and extra gybe by NZL seals the race for the Italians. Hesitation in the pre-start by NZL left ITA able to lead across the start line and set up their race strategy.

Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli wins Race 2! Finish delta is 0:07. The series is tied at 1-1.

Rescheduled for March 10: Covid Alert Level 3 in Auckland was issued Feb 28, for seven days. The first scheduled weekend of racing in the America's Cup was postponed. Auckland returned to Covid Alert Level 2 on Sunday, March 7. Event organizers have accordingly announced that the America's Cup Match can begin on Wednesday, March 10. Preparations for racing such as yacht measurement and configuration declaration proceeded during the Alert.

America's Cup Match Day 2
Friday, March 12

Challenger: Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli (ITA)
Defender: Emirates Team New Zealand (NZL)

First to Seven Wins (Best of 13) Series.
At the start of the day, the Match is tied 1-1.

Program:
Friday, March 12, Two Races:

Race 3:
Warning signal 4:12 pm, Start 4:15pm
ITA (port entry) beats NZL (starboard entry)
ITA leads Match 2-1

Race 4:
Start expected at 5:20
NZL (port) beats ITA (starboard)
Match is tied at 2-2

Daily Report:

Course:
Course E is indicated Friday morning as the preferred location.

Conditions:
ENE 6-8 kts (Repcast). High tide at 1936. Minimal seaway. Tidal current on Course E may slightly help upwind foiling. Official race forecast wind ranges are from 3-5 kts early on both courses today at 4:00 pm and 5:00 pm. Wind forecast raises slightly by 6:00pm, showing 6-7 kts. Per the Match Conditions, the Race Director needs to see a measured 6.5 kts rolling average of True Wind Speed in the period from 9 minutes to 4 minutes before the start. A current correction factor complicates the measurement.

Outlook:
In Wednesday's, mid-range conditions about 14 kts or so, upwind the edge in speed was to Luna Rossa, and they probably tacked better, too. Downwind, the quicker boat is New Zealand. That's not an entirely different situation than the Prada Cup Final, where Luna Rossa prevailed over Ineos, but there's a lot less difference here. If anything, the Italians might be slightly favored to win the America's Cup in that range. In lighter conditions, usually one side of the course is favored, and we've seen that, even in AC75 yachts, a leading boat can usually protect that side with match racing tactics, at least enough to keep the trailing boat from passing. The current forecasts are showing light conditions this weekend and into the beginning of next week, which will probably amplify that aspect of the matchup even more.

So the outcome of the America's Cup match may come down to light air performance, the thin zone between foiling in light air and dropping into the water and watching the other guy sail away. In December, ETNZ looked to have light air mastered, at least compared to the challengers. With new foils, refined sails, and more experience, the performance profiles of both yachts have probably significantly changed since, but it's easy to expect New Zealand to excel in these conditions until proven otherwise.

Being able to start a race Friday or Saturday will probably depend on having a solid enough wind to lay the course and keep it oriented to the wind direction, and there are several specific rules to guide the Race Director in doing that. Even if Friday and Saturday slip, there's still no big wind in the immediate forecast out to mid-week, when most or all of the regatta may be complete.

What to expect for Friday, if racing goes forward? Winning the start in light air is such a huge advantage that both sides will probably press the opponent hard, looking to start ahead. We've seen the examples, though, that anybody coming off their foils or drawing a penalty may end up spotting their opponent an insurmountable lead. So aggressive but smart tactics, coupled with smooth boat handling, will be the order of the day. Keep Calm and Remain Foiling.

Race 3:
After a lee-bow after the first tack, Luna Rossa sails up and ahead of Emirates Team New Zealand, pointing much higher and sailing faster, an intimidating display of upwind performance in these conditions. NZL has to take extra tacks, while ITA looks faster. ETNZ's downwind speed doesn't close the gap enough. With the wind a little spotty, Luna Rossa has to chase pressure sometimes, and eventually ETNZ makes some gains, cutting the lead in half, but not really threatening much more.

Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli wins Race 3! Finish delta is :37 seconds. ITA leads series 2-1.

Race 4:
A tight position with Luna Rossa starting just to weather of Emirates Team New Zealand forces ITA to tack away after the start. Coming off the boundary, NZL on port can cross just far enough ahead to force Luna Rossa to tack again to the boundary. NZL settles in on starboard and takes control of the leg. Though it's only a 9 second lead at Mark 1, Luna Rossa has some trouble gybing at the bottom of the downwind leg, and gives NZL a much bigger lead of 34 seconds at the downwind gate. The wind has gone just a touch lighter, and ETNZ is sailing just a little better in it. They continue to extend throughout the race.

Emirates Team New Zealand wins Race 4! Finish delta is 1:03. Match is tied at 2-2.

America's Cup Match Day 3
Saturday, March 13

Challenger: Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli (ITA)
Defender: Emirates Team New Zealand (NZL)

First to Seven Wins (Best of 13) Series.
At the start of the day, the Match is tied 2-2

Program:
Saturday, March 13, Two Races:

Race 5:
Warning signal 4:12 pm, Start 4:15pm
NZL (port entry) loses to ITA (starboard entry)
ITA now leads Match 3-2

Race 6:
Start expected 25 minutes after R5
ITA (port) loses to NZL (starboard)
Match is now tied at 3-3

Daily Report:

Course: Course Area A

Conditions:
Winds NNE 10-12 kts, (Repcast). High Tide 1821. Winds NE 7-11 kts (Official, via Predict Wind)

Outlook:
In Race 3, Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli used their upwind speed to open a small lead that they defended well against Emirates Team New Zealand. Lighter wind, slightly dropping from 9-10 knots to flirting with 8, changed the story. The Italians were coming out of tacks more slowly than New Zealand, which gave the Kiwis just enough leverage to get in front. A blown gybe on the first downwind set Luna Rossa even further back, and Race 4 was quickly out of reach.

What's the story for Saturday? Light wind under 9 knots down to the 6.5 kt minimum looks like Italy's Achilles Heel. 10 knots and above, anything can happen for them.

Race 5:
Good start for Luna Rossa as ETNZ is slow and not foiling. They defend the favored side upwind, holding off ETNZ, and don't give up anything downwind either.

Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli wins Race 5! Finish delta is :18 seconds. ITA leads the match by 3-2

Race 6:
Emirates Team New Zealand gets a clean start at the line, Luna Rossa hits a dead patch, and can't get to the line on time, is stuck off their foils. One they get going, ETNZ has a solid lead, :51 seconds at the first mark. Luna Rossa slip back a little as they go around, not making gains. The lead is out to 800m for ETNZ by Leg 4.

Emirates Team New Zealand wins Race 6! Finish delta is 1:41. The Match is tied at 3-3.

 

America's Cup Match Day 4
Sunday, March 14

Update 5:50pm
Racing Abandoned for Sunday. See you on Monday.

 

America's Cup Match Day 5
Monday, March 15

Challenger: Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli (ITA)
Defender: Emirates Team New Zealand (NZL)

First to Seven Wins (Best of 13) Series.
At the start of the day, the Match is tied 3-3

Program:
Monday, March 15, Two Races

Race 7:
Warning signal 4:12 pm, Start 4:15pm
ITA (port entry) loses to NZL (starboard entry)
Finish Delta 0:58
NZL leads series now 4-3

Race 8:
Start 5:15 pm
NZL (port) beats ITA (starboard)
NZL leads series now 5-3

Daily Report:

Course: Course Area E1

Conditions:
Wind NE 13-15 kts, northerly (NNE) wind direction funneled down Motuihe Channel, between Motutapu and Motuihe Islands, but mainly via the Sergeant Channel between Motuihe and Waiheke Islands (Repcast for Course E1). Low tide 1546. No significant current. Wind NNE 12-13 kts (Official, via PredictWind)

Outlook:
Forecasts for more mid-range wind conditions are better for Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli. The very light stuff was starting to look like a vulnerability and more reliable wind should at least make it a more straight-up sailing comparison. Likelihood of a favorable side of the race area should still reward match racing strategies by the boat leading up the course. Having seen each other on the race course a half-dozen times now, the teams are probably making adjustments to their state of tune to optimize their competitive footing, but with the yacht measurement process frozen during the Match, that is going to be a matter of choosing the right sails and making many small tweaks that hopefully add up to something larger. Can somebody pull away in the standings or is this going to go down to a 13th and deciding race?

Race 7:
Early jump for ITA, but NZL looks faster upwind, and gains downwind. Gybing at the bottom of the first downwind, ITA finds soft wind, and at the same time NZL gets something better, NZL pulls even, then ahead. NZL then proceeds to sail away with the race, much faster upwind and downwind in 10-12 knots. Perhaps it's sail selection (Luna Rossa with their larger J1.5, Emirates with their smaller J3), or maybe NZL just unlocked some speed they had been hiding, but Race 7 is quickly no contest.

Emirates Team New Zealand wins Race 7! Finish delta is :58 seconds. NZL leads the America's Cup Match 4-3.

Race 8:
Luna Rossa getting ahead and pulling away as Leg 1 unfolds, looking now like the right jib choice. On the first downwind, NZL starts closing in, then gybes as wind gets light, NZL off foils. Luna Rossa appears to sail off leaving NZL dead in the water. Wind keeps dropping though, and ITA comes off foils in rounding the downwind mark. NZL, flying again, catches up and passes before Luna Rossa can get back to foiling. Wind is very light and spotty. NZL opens a big lead. Race course is shortened to 5 legs from 6, with an upwind finish, to stay within time limit.

Emirates Team New Zealand wins Race 8! NZL leads the America's Cup Match 5-3.

Things broke the right way today for Team New Zealand today. They had the right sail for the eventuating wind conditions in the first race, when Luna Rossa probably was expecting a slightly lower range.

And then after ETNZ falling off their foils in the second race, and sailing negative VMG for minutes to get going again, the same thing happened to their opponent, who took even longer to recover in the increasingly patchy, lightening breeze. Certain defeat turned quickly into an easy winning margin. Nothing's over, but nothing stands even on the scoreboard anymore, either. Luna Rossa probably still has a lot of gas in the tank, but they can't have any more days like this.

Racing resumes tomorrow!

America's Cup Match Day 6
Tuesday, March 16

Challenger: Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli (ITA)
Defender: Emirates Team New Zealand (NZL)

First to Seven Wins (Best of 13) Series.
At the start of the day, NZL leads the Match 5-3

Program:
Tuesday, March 16, Two Races:

Race 8:
Warning signal 4:12 pm, Start 4:15pm
NZL (port entry) beats ITA (starboard entry)
NZL leads Match 6-3

Race 9:
ITA (port) vs. NZL (starboard)
Match Point Race
Start expected 5:45 as conditions allow,
Incoming Left Shift prevents laying an appropriate course, and the race is abandoned at 5:51 for the day. See you tomorrow!

Course: Course Area C

Conditions:
Wind WSW 8 kts at 4:00pm building to WSW 12-14 kts around 5:00pm, then becoming SW and easing as the sun starts getting lower; puffy, and given to holes. (See updated Repcast). Wind SW 8-10 becoming SSW 10-13 kts (Official, via PredictWind). Low Tide 1623.

Outlook:
Getting the bets on the wind right is looking to be a significant factor in this Cup. The foresail selection in particular. Shifting back to Course C might be a help, as the teams are more familiar with the interaction between environment and wind there. Luna Rossa got the short end of it all yesterday, with wind that went a little higher than expected as the first race progressed, and left them in a hole they had a hard time escaping in the second race. New Zealand made the most of it.

The Match is showing that in the AC75 yachts, though there are limited elements of the boat configuration to control, you had better get those absolutely correct for the conditions, and "correct" is a narrow range. With today starting out lighter, and probably building a bit though backing slightly, it might not be as tricky as Monday. Wednesday is showing stronger wind, and if Luna Rossa can survive until then, their chances might improve. But today the second race could be match point, and an America's Cup victory for the defender if they can take both races.

Luna Rossa needs something on the scoreboard today. They have so often looked fast and in sync with their boat and the conditions, and when have had good cards to play, they have won. Yesterday's gone, as they say, win for today, and maybe tomorrow will bring something good, too. New Zealand, though they didn't win the starts on Monday, had the speed to get through to the lead, the first passing of this Match. Was it a sign they have found so much speed they can win at will now? If they can post numbers like they did yesterday, the America's Cup will remain theirs for another defense.

Race 9:
A back and forth race, with the boats nearly even, and just seconds apart at each mark until the 5th leg. Brilliant match racing tactics from Luna Rossa, but one gap for New Zealand and they get through on a leftie wind shift at the top of the 5th leg. New Zealand is tacking better than ever, has upwind speed to match ITA, and is faster downwind.

Emirates Team New Zealand wins Race 9! They are one win from taking the America's Cup Match. Score is 6-3. Finish delta was :30.

Race 10:
Match Point Race
Start expected 5:45 pm. Subject to wind conditions as a shift to SW is in progress. Races must start by 6:00pm. After an attempt at 5:45, and another for 5:55, racing is abandoned for the day at 5:51. The predicted left shift from W to SSW was coming in, dropping pressure across the course, and with a 20 degree disparity in wind direction, the wind did not settle in time to set a new race course.

See you tomorrow! Possibly for the final race of the 36th America's Cup. Two races are scheduled.

Luna Rossa sailed wonderfully for most of the race, and kept pulling leads out of their hat with great tactics, their slick "High Mode," and impeccable crew work. And this was despite New Zealand being able to close up and get even more than once. The sobering reality is that ITA sailed one of the best Cup races in memory, and still had trouble protecting their lead, and eventually lost it. It indicates that New Zealand has probably become faster than Luna Rossa, at least in these conditions. Maybe the Italians can respond in kind, but Match Point for New Zealand is looming and Italy needs to win 4 straight.

Upcoming Weather:

Repcast for March 17-18
Issued 0945hrs local time March 17th 2021
Situation at 0945hrs Tuesday:

It’s currently blowing due South at 8 knots peak, average 6 knots, at Bean Rock. The barometer is 1,019 hPa out the backyard, up 4 hPa since this time yesterday. A weak front lingers over the top part of the country with a weaker front moving in from the west later today. 

Wednesday Mar 17: We are looking at S to SE winds this morning, then that NE flow fills in just after midday - I'd pick Course A and look for about 12-14 knots peak at around 16 knots steady ENE. Repcast chance of racing is 90% - conditions should see reasonably clear skies - I'd see about 1 foot ENE swell with bottom of the tide at 1659 hours. 

Thursday Mar 18: I'm still picking 14-16 knot easterlies - bigger swell up to 2 to 3 feet at both course A and E. Repcast 80% for Thursday if required.

America's Cup Match Day 7
Wednesday, March 17

Challenger: Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli (ITA)
Defender: Emirates Team New Zealand (NZL)

First to Seven Wins (Best of 13) Contest.
At the start of the day, NZL leads the America's Cup Match 6-3.
New Zealand is on Match Point.

Program:
Wednesday, March 17, Two Races:

Race 10:
Warning signal 4:12 pm, Start 4:15pm
ITA (port entry) loses to NZL (starboard entry)
New Zealand wins the America's Cup 7-3

Race 11:
ITA (port) vs. NZL (starboard)
Start 25 minutes after previous race ends

Not needed 

Course: Course Area A

Conditions:
Wind becoming ENE, average 12-14 kts, peaking 16 kts. Low tide 1659 hrs, with about 1 ft. swell (Repcast). Wind NE 8-10 kts, becoming NNE late (Official, via PredictWind).

Outlook:
This may be it. New Zealand is on Match Point, having won the last three races. In the last two, Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli was threatening to win, and just as well could be up 5-4 or better at this stage, but events just aren't working out that way. This is the rare America's Cup where it feels like either boat could have won, and Italy by no means couldn't go on to do that, but NZL seems to be improving faster and the balance looks to be tipping their way.

They have modified their tacking technique, and no longer give up ground to ITA when the tack. Upwind, assuming everybody has their correct jib, Luna Rossa still has a slight edge, and a high mode that works wonders when needed, but their advantages have become narrower as the match proceeds.

Francesco Bruni and Jimmy Spithill combined to sail an all-time great match race against Peter Burling, but if New Zealand gets ahead, they are very hard to catch. (More so when that happens with only the downwind leg left.)

Today's forecast shows more solid wind, which could mean more great close action, but Luna Rossa has zero margin for error and winning the next four races would be one tall task. The trend is the friend of the Kiwis now, and it will be a surprise if they don't wrap up the country's fourth America's Cup victory sometime today.

Race 10:
Near even start, slight lead opens up for New Zealand as they get favorable wind on eh right side of the course, and then carry that to the left at the top of the first windward. Italy gets closer on the downwind leg, but gybes off pace in the gate, spotting New Zealand a bigger lead. Upwind, New Zealand this time extends to about 300m, and it's just getting out of reach. Not enough time or distance to make anything else work for them.

Emirates Team New Zealand wins the 2021 America's Cup! Match score of 7-3.